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84th Academy Award Nomination and Winner Predictions

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Oscar Nominations: Actual Nominees | Nominations Analysis | Watch the Announcement | Predictions
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Actual 2012 Oscar Nominees (nominees in alphabetical order):

Best Picture:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
The Tree of Life

Best Director:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
The Ides of March
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Art Direction:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Best Visual Effects:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Costume Design:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Best Makeup:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady

Best Original Song:
"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets
"Real in Rio" from Rio

Best Original Score:
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Sound Mixing:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Sound Editing:
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Actor:
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress:
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress:
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Animated Feature:
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Foreign Language Film:
Bullhead, Belgium
Footnote, Israel
In Darkness, Poland
Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
A Separation, Iran

Best Documentary Feature:
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

Best Animated Short:
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Best Live Action Short:
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Best Documentary Short:
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movemnt
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Related Reviews - This Year's Academy Awards Nominees:
The Tree of LifeMidnight in ParisMoneyballThe Help
The Ides of MarchRangoKung Fu Panda 2Rio
Rise of the Planet of the ApesHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Transformers: Dark of the MoonDriveReal Steel

Analysis:

In the first year where the number of Best Picture nominees could have varied from five to ten, nine films received the necessary 5% of the vote to make the cut. Least expected among them was Stephen Daldry's Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which received more negative reviews than positive ones and, after being anticipated for much of 2011 as being a potential awards darling, had vanished from the discussion in recent weeks. As expected, Hugo and The Artist led the pack, earning 11 and 10 nominations, respectively.

With its editing and screenplay nominations, signs point very clearly to The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being the film that would have been the tenth Best Picture nominee, had the category not been revised again. The Adventures of Tintin, the recent winner of the Golden Globes' Animated Feature award, was perceived as the most serious competition to Rango, but it failed to get a nomination over two acclaimed DreamWorks movies and two obscure international ones (quite likely, its motion capture methods are to blame).
Disney's Touchstone Pictures branch, which almost never received any recognition in its first 25 years of existence, landed two Best Picture nominations (The Help and War Horse), both out of the first of its 5-year distribution partnership with Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks Pictures (a separate entity from similarly-named animation unit).

The R-rated comedy Bridesmaids picked up two Oscar nominations, the first received by a Judd Apatow production. It was the rare comedy nominated for screenplay, with critical favorites 50/50 and Win Win missing the cut. Gary Oldman's nomination is his first in thirty notable years of acting. The Academy shunned some of the more offbeat, independent work that had done well in critics awards, including Michael Fassbender in the NC-17 sex addiction drama Shame, Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin, and Albert Brooks in Drive, favoring instead the latest output of previous nominees, such as Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), and the reclusive Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life). Some newcomers were admitted, however, including Demián Bichir, who pulled a Richard Jenkins with his largely unseen but formidable performance in A Better Life, which had the benefit of being one of the season's first screeners sent to Academy members.

And a happy birthday to Academy member and 1950s Oscar winner Ernest Borgnine, who turned 95 today and continues to work regularly.

Most nominations by films:
Hugo, 11
The Artist, 10
Moneyball, 6
War Horse, 6
The Descendants, 5
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, 5
The Help, 4
Midnight in Paris, 4
The Tree of Life, 3
Albert Nobbs, 3
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 3
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, 3
Transformers: Dark of the Moon, 3
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2
My Week with Marilyn, 2
Bridesmaids, 2
A Separation, 2
The Iron Lady, 2

Watch the Oscar Nomination Announcement Live:

The Eiffel Tower lights up behind Gil Pender (Owen Wilson) on another magical midnight in Paris.

2012 Oscar Nominee Predictions (predicted winners in bold): - posted five hours before the Academy Award nominations were announced.

Obviously, these are what I expected to be nominated/win, not what I wanted to, although I suppose there's a little bit of the latter in some of the bottom selections. I left out most categories about which I am clueless, but did try my luck at a few of those.

Predicted Best Picture (6 predicted nominees):
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

if 7 nominees: The Tree of Life
if 8 nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
if 9 nominees: Moneyball
if 10 nominees: Drive

Predicted Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Predicted Best Original Screenplay:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Win/Win

Predicted Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
The Ides of March

Predicted Best Animated Feature:
Rango
The Adventures of Tintin
Puss in Boots
Chico & Rita
if five nominees: Arthur Christmas

Predicted Best Foreign Language Film:
A Separation

Predicted Best Documentary Feature:
Paradise Lost 3
Pina
Project Nim
Bill Cunningham New York
Buck

Predicted Best Original Song:
"Life's a Happy Song" from The Muppets
"The Living Proof" from The Help
"Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs
"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets
"Think You Can Wait" from Win Win

Predicted Best Actor:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Predicted Best Actress:
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Predicted Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Nick Nolte, Warrior (but it should be Ben Kingsley, Hugo)

Predicted Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants

Predicted Best Cinematography:
Hugo
The Artist
The Tree of Life
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Predicted Best Editing:
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Descendants
Contagion

Predicted Best Visual Effects:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo

Predicted Best Costume Design:
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
The Help

Predicted Best Makeup:
The Iron Lady
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

<< Back
121 Movies of 2011 ranked and reviewed!

Related Reviews - Academy Award Winners for Best Picture:
WingsThe Sound of MusicThe GodfatherRockyPlatoonNo Country for Old MenThe King's Speech

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Posted January 24, 2012.



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