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Best Actor - Drama
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Next in line: Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger; James McAvoy, Split; Robert Pattison, Good Time; Hugh Jackman, Logan; Christian Bale, Hostiles; Andrew Garfield, Breathe
For a long time, the Globes had a reputation for being enamored with stars. They've gotten better in recent years, but this year's crop has a mix of names and it wouldn't be terribly surprising if any of my predicted five missed out in favor of one of those next in line. The competition here is lighter than most years and prior to seeing Phantom Thread, there isn't anyone I feel strongly enough to want them to win here.
Best Actress - Drama
Meryl Streep, The Post
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Next in line: Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman; Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel; Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool; Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World; Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
The Oscars' Best Actress five feel pretty locked, but with Saoirse Ronan and Tonya Harding relegated to the Comedy or Musical category, this one has two openings to be filled. Without having yet seen her film, Chastain seems like an obvious choice. Meanwhile, mother! was reviled by the public, but critics and online film buffs kind of took to it and Lawrence is a big enough star that I feel she sneaks in here over better-timed, more awards-friendly fare.
Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Adam Sandler, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
Next in line: Matt Damon, Downsizing; Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver, Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
This category really depends on how the Best Picture - Musical or Comedy category shapes up. Franco and Nanjiani seem like safe bets for their secure Best Picture nominees. Kaluuya is unusually unknown for such an award, so even if Get Out gets in (and it will), he could miss out. The title of Jackman's movie alone makes him a shoo-in and even though it's a Netflix film and the film industry sorta loathes Netflix, I think Sandler gets in, much like Greta Gerwig did four years ago for Noah Baumbach's similarly small Frances Ha.
Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Emma Watson, Beauty and the Beast
Next in line: Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner; Zoe Kazan, The Big Sick; Allison Williams, Get Out
Ronan and Robbie are locked and loaded. Beyond that, there are some seriously slim pickings here. I haven't yet seen her movie, but I think Dench gets in on a legacy vote for a movie few saw. Stone, the award's likable reigning champ, probably returns for a movie more people liked than loved. And Beauty and the Beast was the biggest movie of the year and Watson was its face, so I think she has to get in, unless they're absolutely bonkers for Big Sick, which gives Kazan the smallest and least remarkable of the four principal roles.
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World; Bob Odenkirk, The Post; Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Next in line: Ray Romano, The Big Sick; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Patrick Stewart, Logan; Mark Rylance, Dunkirk; Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying;
This is one of the most interesting races of the year, with Dafoe and Rockwell seemingly neck and neck in terms of both quality performing and compelling career narrative. Beyond that, expect the category to be filled out with actors from Best Picture nominees. Romano is one of the nods I'd most like to see, but it seems like the competition may be too tough for him to crack it. He'd be my third choice, but if he misses here, I imagine his Oscar dreams go out the window.
Best Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Next in line: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water; Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip; Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread; Julia Roberts, Wonder; Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
I like the three different mother roles atop the category and think they get in. Leo's movie is small and largely under the radar (then again, so was Elle, which earned Isabelle Huppert a Best Actress in a Drama win at last Globes). Novitiate's only award season hopes of note seem to rest with her strong performance as a Mother Superior. I could easily see her missing out. And I have yet to see Downsizing, but Chau seems to be that film's best hope. The reviews haven't been kind, though, so either another adequate Spencer performance makes the cut or the Globes shine a light on one of the other films that could largely or completely be shut out.
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